The survey lands one day before the budget. Growth came in at 3.7 percent, the fastest in four years and still short of target. The fiscal books are the tightest in two decades. The external account is the soft spot, and the May inflation print is the warning light.
3.7%
GDP growth, vs 4.2% target
$452.1bn
Economy size, largest ever
$1,901
Per capita income, from $1,751
6.7%
Avg inflation, Jul to May
I
Targets versus delivery
Every production target was missed. Services edged past theirs by nine basis points, and the inflation ceiling held. That is the whole year in one frame.
Target vs actual, FY26
Percent. Hollow marker is target, solid marker is outcome.
Missed targetBeat target
II
Four years of climb
The fastest growth since FY22. The ministry's telling credits resilience through floods, a regional war and tariff uncertainty; the chart's telling is simpler. The 4 percent line stays out of reach.
Real GDP growth
Percent, fiscal years. Dashed line marks the FY26 target.
III
Disinflation, with a sting in May
The annual average is back near single digits and under the ceiling. The exit path is not: CPI rose 11.66 percent year-on-year in May, with the policy rate parked at 11.5 percent. The survey attributes the climb to global oil prices and supply disruptions during the Gulf conflict. Month-on-month, May was a tame 0.52 percent.
Average CPI inflation by fiscal year
Percent. Marker shows the May 2026 year-on-year print.
The path, all YoY: 7.3 percent in March, 10.9 in April, 11.66 in May. Policy rate 11.5 percent, down from a 22 percent peak.
IV
The tightest books in 21 years
Nine months of fiscal data show a deficit of 0.7 percent of GDP, against 2.6 percent a year earlier. The full-year deficit is projected at 3.6 percent, a 21-year low, helped by record central bank profits, a 45 percent jump in petroleum levy receipts and early retirement of domestic debt that cut markup payments by 23 percent.
Fiscal balance, Jul to Mar
Percent of GDP
Jul to Mar actuals. The survey's full-year framing puts the primary surplus at 3.5 percent of GDP, the strongest in over two decades.
Revenue stack, FY26
Rs trillion
Petroleum levy receipts jumped 45 percent, the quiet workhorse inside non-tax revenue.
Rs83.3tn
Public debt stock at end-March 2026.
68.5%
Debt-to-GDP in FY26, continuing to decline.
-23%
Markup payments YoY, the dividend from early retirement of domestic debt.
V
The soft spot
Exports fell while imports climbed on costlier energy. The current account flipped from surplus to deficit in April. Remittances and rebuilt reserves are doing the heavy lifting.
Goods trade, Jul to Apr
USD billion
-$252m
Current account, Jul to Apr. From a $1.7bn surplus a year earlier.
$33.9bn
Remittances, Jul to Apr, +9% and at record pace. Full year expected near $41 to 42bn.
$22.6bn
Total FX reserves by May 15: SBP $17.1bn, banks $5.5bn. SBP stock up 49% YoY, with $18bn expected by end-June.
Survey-reported goods trade deficit was $23.53bn over Jul to Mar; the trade chart above uses Jul to Apr flows. IT exports crossed $3.8bn during Jul to Apr, with over $4.5bn expected by year-end. The rupee averaged Rs281.1 to the dollar over Jul to Mar, effectively flat on the year.
VI
Minor crops carried the field
The survey's weighted index of important crops managed just 0.65 percent against a 6.7 percent target. The chart tells the companion story in physical output: the pull came from minor crops outside that index, while cotton, the heaviest weight in the textile chain, slipped again.
Crop output, FY26
Change, percent YoY
Output changes, not index weights. Wheat 29.6m tonnes, rice 10.0m, sugarcane 89.45m, cotton 7.05m bales.
VII
Under the hood
Industry missed its target at 3.51 percent even as large-scale manufacturing grew 6.1 percent, with gains spread across 16 of 22 sectors including food, textiles and apparel. The drag sat elsewhere in industry: utilities contracted roughly 10 percent while construction grew 5.7. Across the selected industry and services indicators below, the spread is wide: communications led, finance barely moved, and power fell outright.
Selected sub-sector growth, FY26
Percent YoY. Mixed industry and services indicators.
Private-sector credit disbursements reached Rs987bn, against Rs694bn a year earlier. The credit channel is transmitting; the power sector is not.
Tomorrow, 12 June
What the survey sets up
Carbon levyReported FY27 budget proposal: up to 19.5% on vehicles above 2,000cc. A revenue measure dressed as climate policy.
Base expansionThe reported FY27 frame requires an FBR collection jump near 37%. The question is whether the burden finally moves beyond registered filers; this year's 10.1% growth came from the same pockets.
Development spendThe NEC has approved a Rs3,669bn national development budget for FY27. Watch how much of it survives the fiscal arithmetic.
BISP enhancementThe offset for two years of tight policy on lower-income households.
Markets backdropKSE-100 gained 18.4% over Jul to Mar, with 175,000 new investors and 11 IPOs, the most in 20 years.
The FY27 frameReported budget frame: a Rs17.1tn outlay, 4.1% growth target and 8.2% inflation assumption, with the revenue push still leaning on the formal economy. Watch the deficit target against this year's 3.6%.