The Barometer
Proprietary indicators for Pakistan's economy. Updated monthly.
External-Stress Index 🔗
Partial easing. CA returns to surplus. CDS narrows on ceasefire framework. But REER at 106.15 — overvaluation pressure is the emerging risk vector.
Oil collapse eases import bill. SBP targets reserves above $18B. CDS easing on ceasefire. But REER at 92-month high and SBP rate hold at 11.5% signal the structural stress has shifted from reserves to competitiveness.
| Component | Weight | Raw | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import Cover | 30% | 2.9 months | 43 |
| REER | 20% | 106.15 | 49 |
| Current Account | 25% | +459M | 0 |
| CDS 5Y Spread | 25% | 480 bps | 41 |
Methodology and sources
Four indicators, each scored 0–100 using fixed thresholds, weighted and summed. Import Cover (30%): SBP reserves ÷ monthly imports; 1 month = 100, 4+ months = 0. REER (20%): bowl-shaped scoring around equilibrium at 97.5; stress rises at both extremes. Current Account (25%): monthly CA annualized as % of GDP; surplus = 0, deficit beyond -4% = 100. Sovereign Spread (25%): 5Y CDS; 300bps = 0, 1000bps+ = 100.
0–25 Low. 25–50 Moderate. 50–75 Elevated. 75–100 Critical.
Sources: SBP (reserves, REER, BoP), PBS (imports), worldgovernmentbonds.com (CDS). Does not capture fiscal stress, monetary conditions, or political risk. Not investment advice.
Energy & Import Cost Index 🔗
Rapid normalization. Petrol below Rs 300 for first time in conflict cycle. Brent collapses to $73 on ceasefire. Near baseline but OGRA has room for further cuts.
| Component | Weight | Jan 2026 | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol (MS) | 40% | Rs 253.17 | Rs 299.78 | 18% |
| Brent × PKR | 30% | Rs 19,145/bbl | Rs 20,302/bbl | 6% |
| USD/PKR | 30% | 279.9 | 277.92 | -0.7% |
Methodology and sources
Each component: (current ÷ January 2026 base) × weight. Sum = index. Motor fuel (40%): OGRA petrol price. Imported energy (30%): Brent × USD/PKR, the rupee cost of oil imports. Currency (30%): USD/PKR interbank rate.
100: Baseline. 100–110: Normal. 110–130: Margins compressing. 130–150: Severe. 150+: Crisis-level.
Sources: OGRA (petrol), yfinance (Brent), SBP (PKR). Does not capture electricity tariffs, labor, or non-oil raw materials. Not investment advice.
Input Cost Tracker 🔗
Off the April peak as crude crashes and resins follow. Diesel easing fastest on OGRA cuts. CPO and HDPE still elevated on global supply tightness.
Weights: diesel (25%), HDPE (15%), PET (10%), CPO (15%), sugar (10%), tea (10%), SMP (10%), wheat (5%). Base: Jan 2026 = 100.
Methodology and sources
Weighted basket of 8 core input costs that Pakistani manufacturers and FMCG businesses pay. Each commodity is indexed to its January 2026 price = 100. The composite is the weighted average. Unlike the Energy & Import Cost Index, this tracks physical commodities directly: diesel, petrochemical resins, edible oils, sugar, tea, dairy, and wheat.
Updated with each edition from OGRA notifications, international commodity exchanges, PBS wholesale prices, and CIF import data. This is the number that tells a CFO whether their input bill is rising or falling.
Sources: OGRA (diesel), HDPE/PET international benchmarks, MPOC (CPO), CBOT (wheat), trade data (tea CIF, SMP). Not investment advice.